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Measles epidemic expected to hit UK

Experts are predicting that a measles epidemic could sweep London this winter as the uptake of the MMR jab continues to fall.

The latest figures for Southeast London show that only 62 per cent of toddlers have been immunised according to experts from the Health Protection Agency who carried out the research.

The World Health Organisation says the uptake level should be at 95 per cent in order to provide 'herd immunity' which protects everyone against the three diseases.

The medical newspaper, Pulse, has warned that there could be a measles epidemic this winter on a scale similar to that of the 1960s and that the lower levels of immunity following the reduced number of immunisations could mean that as many as 12% of children and 20% of adults could be hospitalised if infected by measles.

The HPA has calculated that the number of infections arising from each case of measles, known as the 'reproduction number', has already reached the critical watermark of 1.0 in London.

The HPA said it was working with health officials in London to formulate an emergency response plan to stop measles spreading. Dr Mary Ramsay, consultant epidemiologist at the HPA, said, "We're predicting an epidemic from this, and many places in London are already at a point where an epidemic can occur."

Phil Johnson, editor of Pulse, said, "We need 95 per cent coverage among young children to be sure of preventing epidemics and in some parts of London uptake of MMR is as low as 65%."

A Department of Health spokeswoman said, "There is no measles epidemic in the UK. So far this year the cases of measles are less than they were last year."

She added that more recent statistics suggested coverage was rising but said, "We need to recognise that overall coverage is lower than ideal and this leaves a concerning vulnerability."

Some parts of London have already seen small outbreaks of the infection.

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